I just listened to the call again and my perception is a little different now. When I heard the call live, I was struck by the lack of "congratulations" from the analysts. The "tones" appeared almost down...and frankly, I wondered why. (especially in comparison to ASND's call.) Anyway, the long and the short of it, I think, is that some of the analysts wanted to pin management down on when sequential growth will accelerate. (and management would not speak to growth rates, B2B, ) They did say they were "pleased" with orders.
I did not have much confidence in the analysts technical understanding of CSCC's business. We will know if that is true if the stock tanks tomorrow. If, on the otherhand, they understand this business, they will see this quarter was outstanding. The AT&T Worldnet ATM win has the potential to be HUGE. Likewise, the Nynex deal (which I did not know they won...but apparently did over NN) will in time be HUGE. Finally, they were very optimistic about the AX's prospects to contribute big. They would not let analysts pin them down but if you read between the lines, they said remote access is $1.5 Billion or so and at another point said they want double digit market share. So, add $100 million to models minimum.
Their product set is more complete and tightly integrated than ANY of their competitors. They are gaining share in ATM quickly. Indeed, they stated they believe they shipped more ATM WAN ports/revenue than anyone in Q4.
ATM and remote access products are going to be HUGE this year. They are taking on CSCO, NN in ATM and ASND in remote access and have lots of advantages.
I open a margin account tomorrow if it drops more than 10%. Can anyone stop them? (besides themselves)
Daniel |
