Straight Up,
The weather here in Atlanta stinks so I am spending some time on the net today.
Reference your millions of users and cash cash flow needed. This is all IMHO. I believe that the "millions of users" indicated in the last press release definitely has great potential, but one needs to keep this in perspective. I base the following on info from GMGC that there will basically be a 3 tier structure (for Intuit). I believe that many of the users will use the VUI on a free bases. At least until such time that these same users are willing to pay (for example $10 - $20 per month) for extra services (not including the full blown service of Portico). How much this will initially cost GMGC is unknown to me (ie for the cost of GMGC to run the free services long distance).
IMO, GMGC will benefit financially once users understand, accept, and appreciate the value and ultimately feel a need for a VUI for the internet. How long it will take for the users to understand the benefits are unknown by me. I am hoping that once Portico comes on line at GMGC's website and Intuit starts the voice portion of their service (combined with any other internet announcements) we will start seeing a quick rise in revenue.
It is well known that teleco carriers are notoriously slow when implementing new technology. Telecos value reliability, whereas internet companies want innovation. I think people in general also want this. When is the last time you picked up a phone that didn't work (besides a broken payphone:)) vs having your computer crash. Telecos need and have to have as close to 100% reliability as possible. It isn't unusual for telecos to trial a product for one or two years. The only possible exception to this may be QWST. QWST seems to be a very innovative carrier company. They are moving at lightning speed to become the all inclusive provider for one's communication needs. Hopefully QWST's quick decision to market trial MagicTalk/Portico will push the other carriers into acting faster.
Base on what I have read lately, it is easy to be believe that v-commerce will be the ticket for 1999. If portals (ie Excite, Yahoo, MSFT) decide to move on v-commerce and utilize MagicTalk, then I think revenues will start coming in fairly quickly after any announcement (or implementation) of MagicTalk.
Do I think the potential is great. Without a doubt, yes. But, the revenue needs to start coming in this qtr (1st qtr 99) or there will be a need for refinancing whether it be through a partner, loan, or another convertible. I can't believe GMGC would wait until the 2nd qtr to refinance. That would cut it very close as I don't think they have the cash/equivalents to last much past June. This is not taking into account a dramatic rise in revenue in the 1st qtr which I don't see at this point in time unless potential portals do in fact move at internet speed in regards to v-commerce. I hope I am way off base on this as I do like the potential for GMGC and want to see them succeed for a purely selfish point of view:)
Other points to ponder. I am hoping the statement "internet partners" was a freudian slip and GMGC does have many more announcements to come. Everything that I have read and information/rumors that I have received indicates that there will be some announcements this month. Also, GMGC never did say that the carriers that were trialing Portico were in the U.S. I am not spreading rumors and I could be way off base, but I think this is a very interesting that they 1. didn't mention the names of the carriers and 2) didn't say whether they were all in the US (reading between the lines). Look at the language capabilites of Nuance.
Anyway, take care and hope this helps.
Kurt
PS If GMGC eveer announces another NOC being built, watch out cause this would be a dramatic indicator of the acceptance of MagicTalk/Portico. |
