I don't use AOL, I invest in AOL because I am happy with their business model. So that's one less thing to discuss. We're also not comparing the growth of YHOO with the growth of MSFT since a) it was many years ago b) industries are somewhat different. That's great. We are saying that valuation of AOL is justified to some extent ? This is terrific. We are in agreement here.
Why does AOL get into portal business ? Because it sees revenue (additional revenue). If YHOO now has the follower advantage, why do you assume YHOO will not be profitable ? AOL just bought NSCP for their NetCenter. They continue to use MSFT browser. If an expenditure of 4 b can be justified for NetCenter, why can't YHOO justify its "potential" ?
AOL leads in ISP business. Why do you presume that YHOO management hasn't thought of acquisition along those lines ? I don't know why. But YHOO management has shown effectiveness and efficiency and I trust them with their reasoning. If they are getting blowout quarters, they must be doing something right. The business model is working despite all the forecast of the gloom and doom. Maybe there is room for expansion, there is room for revenue/earnings and YHOO is not exploiting those avenues - but if you think the management is doing their job, hang around. I trust the judgement of the dynamic duo. The day I see compacency and stagnation, I will flee - explosive quarters or not. Usage of YHOO is a personal situation. You see it as a yellow pages, I see it as a lifeline for myself. And here we can agree to disagree. No YHOO is not opening restaurants or real estate offices. But the services are great. Half an hour ago, I made reservations for formal friends, at a restaurant I did not know about, and YHOO helped me do that. Yellow pages does not provide that level and sophistication and service. And yellow pages does not give me finance news, international news etc all rolled into one package.
Its not how many people - its how many advertisers are needed. Advertisers love people. And YHOO has the best model to lure people. Like someone said, MSFT has learnt the about the difference between locked clients and loyal clients...and it has been the hard way. Free is beautiful, free is psychologically attractive - no matter how financially capable you are. And YHOO has recognised that. Why would you think it will not make money in the future ? I just gave you 1000s of reasons why people will flock there. How does a town benefit from tourism ?
troble with Census info aboutthird world countries is - its never accurate. And its not very revealing about the distribution patterns. I'm not sure I want to argue this line of discussion without knowing your background and nationality, so let us pass this by. MadDog and I had a discussion, and I'd have nothing new to add.
Do you think AOL would be missed if they stopped their operations ? I could say that about MSFT/CSCO, but AOL ? All internets are in their embryonic stages. None of them will be missed. People haven't formed habits - not yet. And that is why leadership at this stage is important.
Well, you can order the vegemite and jelly on the net - I'm sure. If your prediction about $20 comes true, YHOO may have to sell Vegemite and Aeroplane jelly after all ;)
Come now, $20 is a bit rough, don't you think ? Me ? I'll be out at 200 - with my principle intact and a few thousands to spare. No worries mate.
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