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Technology Stocks : FSII - The Worst is Over?

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To: Joe Dancy who wrote (2368)1/2/1999 10:24:00 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom  Read Replies (1) of 2754
 
Joe,

I agree, it is all very interesting. FSII is part of some good company even though it is not ranked a "1" at the top of the group. This site gives another way of evaluating a stock.

Using "fuzzy logic" (like many other numerical evaluation schemes), however, seems to reduce all evaluation to set of numbers manipulated in some way. It can never take into account a set of circumstances that may be occurring in the future that is not in the present numbers.

Case in point - SFLX as an example. I think it has a lot of potential based on factors stated elsewhere, including reasons stated in your own column(s). However, when I "plugged in" SFLX at the equitytrader site, the potential came out negative. In terms of numerical potential, SFLX was ranked in the bottom 3 stocks out of a group of 36 semiconductor stocks. I find that hard to believe! I think the reason for the low rating is based on the prior mediocre price action of SFLX - particularly the drop of 20 to 30 percent in the last 6 to 8 weeks.

Another case in point - MICN. It is ranked as one of the 4 top stocks in the same group as FSII. That is probably due to the jump in stock price from 7.25 to 10.81 on 3 December, a gain of 49 percent in one day due to the announcement that it was being acquired by FEI Corporation. As far as potential goes, MICN has very little except to sit around and wait for the deal to be consummated in the next few weeks/months - then it disappears as an entity forever.

I hope I didn't sound too negative above. I do like the approach - I just think it is like many other evaluation systems - not everything is taken into account in the evaluation, and sometimes, what is left out is very important.

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