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Technology Stocks : eBay - Superb Internet Business Model

EBAY 82.75

0.0%

3:59 PM EST

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To: Stewart Elliot who wrote (1281)	1/3/1999 9:35:00 PM
From: Timoteo	Read Replies (1) of 7772

FWIW I expect EBAY and most of the other highflyers to be down this week due to "tax-gain" selling. I am unloading a number of positions this week because I think the market is close to a top. The biggest threat to EBAY's price (10 billion cap in round numbers) is not dilution which could be absorbed easily by funds, if internet mania continued, but competition. How much would it cost to duplicate EBAY's infrastructure? a million? 10 million? 100 million tops? How much in advertising and promotion would it take to outdo them? 6 months of free buying plus maybe another 100 million? Or maybe just give $5 to every user times 10 million users is $50 million. But that assumes the competitor is lesser known than EBAY, which is really not that well known. Let's say a YHOO or Netcenter or even a LYCOs or SEEK get serious about the auction business, or one of the computer retailers like CDW get into the act. EBAY could go the route of the Commodore 64, only a lot quicker. I've enjoyed the run and been grateful and astounded, but I'm getting off the EBAY and CMGI rollercoaster while its still close to the top. The only internet valued even close to what its worth IMHO is EGRP, and I'll wait for it to drop another 10 points before I buy some with my EBAY profits. Best Wishes, Timoteo

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