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Technology Stocks : America On-Line (AOL)
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To: Voltaire who wrote (1129)1/3/1999 10:10:00 PM
From: Guardian  Read Replies (2) of 41369
 
Have i missed something or is my pocket-depth obfuscating my judgment? consider this:

I buy 100 shares of aol at 155 on 1/1/99, aol rises $20/share to 175/sh by aol/nscp merger date (eg, 4/1/99). If I sell at that date, I have 2000 profit from my investment of 15500 in 3 months.

Alternate scenario: I buy 254 shares of nscp at 61/sh for the same 15500 investment on 1/1/99 and sell at the same date. If NSCP tracks AOL share price dollar for dollar, I will still only make 20/share, but on 254 shares instead of 100. that leaves me with a profit of $5080.

seems to me that the upside profit potential per dollar invested still outweighs the downside risk of buying in through netscape -- at least through the pre-merger months and only if one believes the aol shares will move upward during that period. but then again, if one did not believe that, why would they buy aol at all during the first quarter of 99.
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