Millennium Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (MLNM) Message Board

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Biotech / Medical : Millennium Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (MLNM)

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To: guido leone who wrote (270)	1/3/1999 10:20:00 PM
From: WTDEC	Read Replies (1) of 3044

Hello Guido. I have not set any price target for MLNM, although I have set an expected holding period of 3+ years. Figuring out a price target for a development type company such as MLNM is an interesting exercise but, personally, I prefer to focus on how well the company is progressing scientifically and commercially. If it makes good progress in those areas price will ultimately follow. This summer was a great example of how emotional the market can be about price. If you were wise or ballsy enough to pick up some MLNM as it nudged single digits, you would have a fabulous annualized return right now and perhaps feel it was time to sell. Yet the company has continued to make great progress and its future looks brighter than ever. Despite the gains and the price being at a new high, the price is not far above several peaks reached since it's IPO, so it is hard to argue it is overvalued compared to past periods of market enthusiasm. I see no reason to sell. Given the developing nature of MLNM, I expect it to take at least 3 years (probably longer) for MLNM to reach a mature stage in developing it's scientific and commercial potential. That is why I set the holding period expectation. When I see that scientific and commercial progress is reaching a mature stage, I'll look more closely at a 'price target'. I LOVE long term compounded gains taxed at low capital-gains rates, or better yet donating highly appreciated stock and taking a big charitable deduction against current income while paying no tax at all. Certainly this long term style is not for everyone and might not be the best possible strategy in any case. Some may be nimble enough to pick off the peaks and valley bottoms, but I don't find that it works even in a tax-deferred IRA account. I do try to use irrational market declines such as the one this summer to average down my buy prices and I sometimes sell call options after sharp runs. While I have been successful averaging down, selling call options has been a mediocre experience for me. That said Guido, I can offer price targets from Wall Street analysts. I have read 4 or 5 MLNM reports from different firms within the past month. Their targets are in the $28-$29 range for 1999. Be aware that it is not unusual for analysts to adjust these numbers up or down as the year progresses. Good luck with your investments, Guido. Walter

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