Hello, Bonnie. I think about everything you say and thanks for thinking of me.
Did you cath Biryani's forecast for the coming year?? 12,000 on the Dow. Are we in 1972 or 1973 yet?
On the subject of derivatives the Applied Derivaties Letter came out today with the following words.
"Last year was challenging for many people, to say the least, but - believe me - it was nothing in comparison to what's to come in 1999. A new year brings new challenges. And: Challenges = opportunities
Knowledgeable, far sighted, nimble traders of derivatives should be able to make a veritable fortune this year. Those that don't fall into these categories are likely to be wiped out - in an even more pronounced fashion than usual".
I have to note thatwhen Nippon Credit and Long Term Credit Bank went down last year in the happy land of Nippon those two banks represented 7% of Japanese GDP.
Also, going into the new year here American corporations are more heavily leveraged with debt than they have ever been in history. When wil this debt unwind? Will this debt unwind? Worry. Worry. Worry.
On another front we are all at sea perhaps....
"Kenneth Arrow, a Nobel laureate in economic science, likes to tell his students the story of a group of statisticians (of which he was one) in the Pentagon during World War II who were responsible for forecasting the number of rainy days in Europe a month ahead of time. At some point, the statisticians concluded that the forecasts were worthless and asked Gen. Henry H. "Hap" Arnold, chief of the Army Air Forces, for permission to stop making them. After a few weeks the following reply came from Arnold: "The commanding general is well aware that the forecasts are no good. However, he has to have them for planning purposes."
Ah, my best to you this wonderful morning my dear.
Clark
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