OK, here I am.<g> To recap: (ball's in your court).
To: happy_girl (41991 )
From: CobaltBlue Monday, Jan 4 1999 12:12PM ET
Reply #
>>>>>So tell me why the NUTS are overvalued<<<<<
Hi Happy Girl, I was hoping that it is you who would tell us why they aren't overvalued?
CobaltBlue
To: CobaltBlue
From: happy_girl
Jan 4 1999 12:28PM EST
Reply #42022 of 42092
Paradigm shift
Need for new models of valuation
Enormous potential discounted back with time value of money, supported by real growth (check success of etailing)
I believe the price should plateau soon. Margin rules have contributed to reduction in volatility. Well balanced split(s) should provide for further reduction in frequency and magnitude of the swings.
I'm sure you've heard this all before. Why do **you** think they are overvalued ? Overpriced maybe - but overvalued ? And does your analysis of overvaluation include the AOL/MSFT/YHOO trio ? I have heard tha analysts stuff, but there are motives behind analysis which I can't disregard. Individual opinions are more important and informative.
Disclaimer : This holds only for the industry leaders.
To: happy_girl (42022 )
From: CobaltBlue Monday, Jan 4 1999 12:44PM ET
Reply # of 42093
Hi Happy Girl,
>>>"Paradigm shift"<<<
I am sorry, I don't know what that means.
>>>"Need for new models of valuation"<<<
Well, yeah, but what are they? You paid for it, can you value it?<g>
>>>"Why would you still think they are overvalued ? Overpriced maybe - but overvalued?"<<<
I was using the terms interchangeably, sorry if that is improper or confusing. I value AOL, I am using it right now. I value Yahoo, I probably use it every day. I value Microsoft's products, I also use them every day, and am using them right now.
Successful investments serve one, or all three, of the following purposes: 1)preservation of capital; 2)increase of capital; 3)income.
I don't dispute that your investments have preserved your capital, and increased it, and that if you sell them you will have income. The question is, if I were to buy YHOO today at $250, roughly, would my capital be preserved and increased? Is the potential increase in YHOO's stock infinite? And if not, if there is no limit, what is it?
If there is a limit, and it is reached, then what?
Being able to get out with much of your gains intact is admirable, and probably says more about your computer skills than the wisdom of your investments. I listen to a radio station that lets financial advisors buy hour blocks of time, so that they can give free advice over the radio and hopefully get investors to come to their offices and pay for more personalized assistance. (I doubt most listeners realize that the speakers pay the station to be on it, not vice versa.<g>) I hear a lot of little old ladies asking about their AOL, YHOO and such. I don't think they will be as clever as you with the exit strategies if-or-when the limit is reached.
To: CobaltBlue (42030 )
From: happy_girl Monday, Jan 4 1999 2:57PM ET
Reply #
Valid points from your perspective.
I'd rather discuss this over at the YHOO thread.
See you there if you care for a discussion. |
