Hyperion Solutions (HYSL) - An Analytical Gorilla? Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Hyperion Solutions (HYSL) - An Analytical Gorilla?

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To: bronco who wrote (311)	1/4/1999 6:31:00 PM
From: Trader Dave	Read Replies (2) of 471

There is a significant difference between now and last October. Last quarter, the hyperion side of the business was weaker than expected and more than offset by the arsw side of the equation. But it was only weaker than expected by a marginal amount. Apparently (new to me) Hyperion software's license business was also below expectations in the June quarter, but then it was chalked up to saving for the future and building pipeline. If the hyperion side of the business is weaker than last quarter in year over year growth (as i fear) it will be three quarters in a row of dismal results from enterprise/pillar et al. This calls into question the viability of much of the applications side of the business. Needham had a call today, perhaps echoed by alex brown last Thursday and Goldman today that said business in the second half of december SLOWED from the already weak pace earlier in the quarter. I am willing to live with merger integration related challenges, but if that is the reason, the company did a poor job in setting license growth rate expectations. I think business intelligence is an important market, but other than e-commerce and front office, it may be possible that no enterprise software sector is safe from the y2k nuclear winter. Maybe the problems here are that the hyperion solutions side of the business is maturing. I didn't say saturated, but even a continuously declining growth rate is troublesome. It's a damned shame, since everything I hear about essbase and the arbor side of the business is that their growth rates are accelerating. If the problems are serious (perhaps even if they are not) the difference is this time is that the company is on the verge of losing the support of the analyst community and decaying morale could lead to significant problems in employee retention. I am deeply suspicious that perakis sold dillon a piece of junk and got away with it. I would like to own this stock and am anxious to re-buy, but I hope that 1998 cured me of the dangerous game of sword catching. TD

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