FWIW, I have been a long time AMZN fan - well, long time means about 3 months ago when AMZN was at $120. I have been long on AMZN up until this afternoon when I sold out last 200 shares I had at $352. On top of that, I sold short 134(300sh split-adjusted) shares at $355-1/8 right before 4:00pm. This is the first time I shorted AMZN, hopefully it will be the last.
The reason I shorted AMZN is simple. I think all the major positive factors that AMZN has been enjoying up until now have all been factored into AMZN's price, especially after this afternoon's late round surge in anticipating tomorrow's 3-for-1 split. Down the road, the Q199's inevitable slow down in sales will gradually come into picture, thus prompting those who have made sizable profits in the past couple months taking profits. My feeling is that AMZN will have a last attempt to jump start higher tomorrow morning. It could start as high as $120. But it will quickly trade downward to initial low of $112. After that it might attempt to go higher again, but the rally will not push AMZN higher than $115 before another round of sell-off knocks it down to perhaps as low as $105. If it does finish at below $110, we might see AMZN drops below $100 in the following days.
In the long run, though, I think both shorts and longs will have chances to make money, as long as you dare to wait!
Good luck to us all, longs and shorts alike!
MB |
