Don,
Sorry if I offended any one on this thread. I just want to point out that shorting industry leaders have so far proven loser's games, especially considering the likes of MSFT.
I posted a "larry's winner portfolio" about one month ago and here are what my portfolio looked like at that time:
AOL, MSFT, DELL, EMC, YHOO!, CSCO, LU, PFE, SUNW, CMGI, and ONSL. I am pretty sure that this portfolio should beat the index handily and so far has outperformed the index by a wide margin in the last month.
ONSL is the wild card here. It can enjoy a triple digit gains in 99 or a 50% loss by year end. Depends on how the management team executes. CMGI and AOL have enjoyed a 100% gain since I put them in the portfolio. Both retreated from all time high. ONSL also ran wild and then crashed toward 30s-40s. These three and YHOO! are more trading stocks due to the wild swing. AOL is vastly overvalued but since the net is here to stay and many compare the net revolution to the industry revolution, plus the bullish sentiment in the whole net sector, I expect AOL to enjoy a market cap of 500 billion + within the next 8-10 years.
No short candidates although a vast of stocks are overvalued currently. I would rather short stocks when the market sentiment turns bearish. To short the market currently = suicide.
larry! |
