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Technology Stocks : Hyperion Solutions (HYSL) - An Analytical Gorilla?
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To: Trader Dave who wrote (313)1/5/1999 6:29:00 AM
From: Dave Doriguzzi   of 471
 
I, like you, didn't understand the Hyperion side of the business as well as I probably should have after holding the ARSW stock (and adding) post merger. However from a well placed source this is what I am hearing on the growth front for their products:

- Essbase makes up about ~25% of license revenue and is growing conservatively 55%
- Pillar makes up about ~33% of license revenue and is growing conservatively 50% (I understand this is a new product used for forecasting and budgeting)
- Enterprise makes up about ~42% of license revenue and is growing around 20% or slightly less (this is an older product used for consolidations of disparate general ledgers)
- Prof. Serv. is about 45% of total revs. and that growth follows license revs.
- Miscellaneous revs. like Wired for Olap, etc. follows Essbase growth but is not significant

If you make the above calculations you get a blended growth rate of ~40%.

If you halve that because you are concerned about merger and product related issues or you are being conservative you have 20%.

At $16.75/share we are trading at less than 10x next years ests. And remember if you subtract the debt they have around $5.00/share in cash. I think it is quite possible that HYSL at these levels represents a very good value.

By the way I used to see you on the TMPL board any reason I should take another look?
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