DB: Can't find your portfolio, so I can't comment on it. The Asia question is a tricky one, though. With SAP, Japan represents about 13 percent of revs. It must have been a huge drop, then, to eat up about 5 percent of profits. But when you add in about 6500 hires this year, plus Y2k caution, and possibly shrinking margins in the US and Europe (as SAP seeks to build market share at the expense of other erp vendors), the problem becomes more understandable. For me, as a long term holder, does this represent a fundamental shift for SAP? I would argue, on the whole, no. The tech trend is the main thing and that trend has not been altered, at least so far. I did sell some SAP shortly after it debuted on the NYSE; my remaining shares will stay in the portfolio unless there is a major major market event.
Same is true with WCOM, which I also have long term.
I have some semi-equipment makers which I am less wedded to, and I would be very cautious with them going forward. Also chip makers themselves. In a related matter, the purchasing managers came out with another low number yesterday and that does not bode well either.
I might consider a GE short; also MMM, DD (if it moves above 57) etc.
That said, my value instincts have led me to keep a much closer eye on oil patch and commodities. There will be some big buying ops there before the end of the year, I think. For what it's worth. M2 |
