CB,
You're in luck (sort of) since there are some folks posting on SI who are among the sharpest biotech investment minds out there. That said, valuing biotechs is probably the hardest thing I've tried to do in investing. Michael is right that it all boils down to CAPM, but the input variables and the timeframes don't lend themselves well to objectification. Another thing to consider with respect to biotechs is they're likely to get slammed in an overall market decline ... despite the fact that many of them sell for attractive values, even after the recent months's strong run by these stocks. But, if you're willing to tread carefully, and spend a bunch of time educating yourself, there's incredible value being created in the industry, and SI is a great place to follow the biotechs.
top notch folks include:
Larry Liebman
Member 2032021
Miljenko Zuanic
Member 3265052
Pseudo Biologist
Member 1399203
Rick Harmon
Member 1178063
Peter Suzman
Member 863789
Vector1
Member 3302975
There are other folks who are topnotch, too, e.g., James Silverman, Henry Niman (Henry's hopelessly infatuated with the company he founded, LGND, but he's incredibly sharp when he assesses other companies ... )
A good thread to follow is:
VD's [Vector1 and Rocketman Dave's] Model Portfolio & Discussion Thread
Subject 14492
BTW, for my money, the two best folks to listen to for their investment probity are Peter Suzman and Vector1. Both are very, very sharp guys, with strong business backgrounds, who've done their homework in learning enough of the science to not get snowed when they evaluate companies. But if you're starting a team, the best all-around player is Rick Harmon. His background is in the science (immunology, I believe), he's worked in the industry since it's early stages, and he's a tireless proponent on SI and other places for honest, careful evaluation of both the science and the business prospects of these companies.
Good luck with your biotech investing!
Peter |
