Tulipomania Blowoff Contest: Why and When will it end? Message Board

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Non-Tech : Tulipomania Blowoff Contest: Why and When will it end?

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Jun 26 5:00 PM EST

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To: Sir Auric Goldfinger who wrote (63)	1/5/1999 5:40:00 PM
From: Arrow Hd.	Read Replies (1) of 3543

Auric, not being a day trader I am going to have to take a longer view of this which appears to be unique based upon the other posts. So here's my guesses. 1. Though I am not sure whether it is the index that has to go down or all of the stocks within the index simutaneously, either way it won't happen until August 1999. There is simply too much money that will flow into the market over the next number of months to support everything including the Internet stocks. Then during the summer there will be a wall of worry to climb as the Y2K issue gets closer. The fact is that the first half of 99 will be fabulous for tech stocks as companies buy ahead to get software and hardware installed and the services needed to assist in that effort. As the second quarter earnings come out there will be a period of relief but that will be shortlived as tech companies warn that the second half will be dismal with no possibility of beating 1998 second half numbers. Customers will have begun the "data center freezes" to insure that their operating environments are bug free going into the millenium. It will be at this "moment of truth" where investors will finally realize that the revenue/earnings momentum will reverse itself and the selloffs will begin. Actually, it wont be the Internet stocks that bring down the market but a market collapse that will bring down the Internet stocks and every other tech stock too. My first date is August 16th. 2. My second date is August 23rd. Same scenario as above. 3. My third date is August 30th. Same scenario as above. Auric, thanks for the contest.

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