Look at last year at this time, for some indication. MAYBE. Last year, in the Dec Jan timeframe, MSFT was trending lower because the litigation was just cranking up. MSFT hit 120 (60 split adjusted), then started trending up strongly on rumors about strong earnings, a split anouncement, strong earnings announcement. Notice they always lowball the earnings expectations, then suprise. I have some ideas about why this is so (they sell puts, and how they account for that I think holds some of the answer about how they can control their earnings with precision).
Now, in contrast to last year at this time, we have run up already... from 100-120 up to 140. BUT. We have the litigation as a lessening negative factor due to: 1 AOL/NSCP changes definition of market for antitrust purposes 2 MSFT case starts in a few days. And we have earnings, which will blow doors. And we have a split coming with earnings. And we have MSFT being recognized (and advertising to be recognized) as a real Internet stock. 4th most active web site on the Internet. MSN getting good publicity. And MSFT owns webtv, expedia, sidewalk.com, etc, etc. Now people are waking up to the fact that EBAY, with its unreal valuation, |
