0.18µm focus in '99:
semibiznews.com
Chip makers will want to keep their plants running while they upgrade them
and that will present a number of challenges to equipment suppliers,
according to Mihir Parikh, chairman and CEO of Asyst Technologies Inc., a
Fremont, Calif.-based supplier of mini-environment technologies and wafer
tracking systems for automation.
"Technology additions can often be disruptive," he pointed out, "and being
able to make capacity additions in non-disruptive ways will become critical."
Mini-environment pods and interfaces -- such as standard mechanical
interfaces (SMIFs) -- can protect and isolate wafers while process bays are
being upgraded, he noted. Among the new technologies that will be installed
in existing fabs are copper-processing steps, chemical mechanical polishing
(CMP), and a wide variety of 0.18-micron equipment.
Some of the biggest investments expected to be made in fabs in 1999 will be
for new deep-ultraviolet (DUV) lithography steppers and scanners,
according to VLSI Research's Puhakka. The market researcher estimated
that this sector will grow 18.5% in 1999, from $1.58 billion in 1998 to $1.87
billion.
Sales of photomask-making equipment will jump a healthy 14% from $372
million in 1998 to $420 million in 1999.
"We'll probably see copper deposition take off," Puhakka predicted,
"especially since Novellus has the clearance from IBM to sell [these] tools to
other companies." He was referring to a licensing pact between the two
companies, which was part of the deal to develop these production tools at
Novellus Systems Inc. in San Jose. According to VLSI Research, the
market for copper deposition tools will triple in 1999, from $64.5 million in
1998 to $199.2 million.
"It is pretty clear that the copper revolution is upon us," agreed George
Canavan, vice president of marketing at Microbar Inc., a Sunnyvale, Calif.,
supplier of chemical management systems. "The only question is how soon
will it take off."
Also emerging in a bigger way in 1999 will be CMP, Canavan said. "CMP
has been emerging for a long time, and in 1999 we think we'll see it showing
up in more DRAM plants."
In lithography, demand for DUV systems has been so great that Silicon
Valley Group Inc. (SVG) has decided to sell tools only for 0.25-micron
feature sizes and below, said Papken S. Der Torossian, chairman and CEO
of the San Jose company. "There is simply not enough capacity to do 0.18
micron. Probably no more than 10 companies worldwide can now produce
[with] that technology," he said. "But in 1999 and 2000 you will see an
acceleration to step-and-scan deep-UV [here]."
SVG's competitors also are pushing hard to serve the DUV segment. Sales
of DUV systems soon will overtake i-line tools at Japan's Nikon Corp. In
1998, about 55% of the litho systems turned out by Nikon were i-line,
according to Kiwamu Koizumi, manager of the sales systems group in its IC
and LCD equipment business.
The device shrinks these new litho systems make possible with existing fabs
will continue at a brisk pace as long as production yields hold up, predicted
Joel Elftmann, chairman and CEO of FSI International Inc. in Chaska, Minn.
"The shrink-to-yield ratio is an important factor that's often overlooked," he
noted.
"If we can shrink and still maintain acceptable yields, it could hold back the
transition to 300-mm [wafers]," Elftmann predicted, because the industry
wouldn't need any new fabs. That would certainly hurt chip gear sales. |
