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Technology Stocks : Clearnet, the Canadian wireless play (CLNTF)

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To: Ray Jacobson who wrote ()1/6/1999 5:18:00 AM
From: Jules Shear  Read Replies (2) of 214
 
Anyone have any news on how CLNTF ended up for 4Q?
Usually Mike activations should slow with the holiday business season slowdown and CDMA PCS activations should have really accelerated this quarter with all of those points-of-presence and expanded POP coverage. If the Bell Canada speculation drags-on, good 4Q numbers combined with continued wireless industry consolidation news could really send this stock flying beyond the "rumored" $15-17 Canadian friendly takeover price.

It still baffles me how undervalued this company is compared to other publicly traded wireless companies. Comparing the per POP values of Nextel and Sprint PCS combined-and applying those to CLNTF would yield a CLNTF share price well above $20 Canadian. Granted, CLNTF probably does not justify same per POP values as Nextel and Sprint PCS combined, but right now CLNTF is valued approximately the same as Nextel despite a national CDMA license that is built-out and has significant customers. It is as if the CLNTF shareholders are getting the CDMA portion of CLNTF for free!!

If Bell Canada gets this thing for the rumored price-it will be a steal for Bell Canada and tragedy to CLNTF shareholders. I would call it a friendly "takeunder" CLNTF 1) has financing to last for the forseeable future 2) is starting to get the customer mass which is critical to wireless profitability, 3) has completed the majority of it's build-out, 4) the "slow" Canadian government is expected to open it's markets to more foreign ownership over the next year or two, and 5) thanks to ATI and Vodafone, wireless equities are finally beginning to be noticed by the investment community which is looking for bargains since other sectors (internet stocks, networking stocks, etc.) are so overvalued.

Given these factors and the fact the current shareholders have demonstrated patience with this stock, IMO another 12-18 months would generate much better potential returns to the CLNTF shareholders than the current "rumored" deal.
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