Vito and Gottfried, We need to do another high estimate analysis for this year along with the lows. Could you set us up for the survey? Thanks.
This DW AMAT's pole of (15) "x's" from the recent shakeout DW low of $40 is the strongest that we have had since 1996. You are correct that AMAT appear stronger during this cycle. Using the DW vertical calculation projections, (15X3=45+40=85) we can expect approximately $85 since this last shakeout. Added to this, IBD's "cup and handle" approach, the cup of $54 has been broken when AMAT hit $55. Now continue momentum will continue on after a brief plateau, (trading range) as investors take profits. Guess our next immediate target is your $63 to $100 scenario. Note, my standard deviation projected high is $101.5967. The previous absolute highs we in 1995 at $119.6 and 1996 at 108.375 in the recent highs.
AMAT strength, this cycle, to me has been just amazing, far exceeding what I and other on this site anticipated. We, just four approximately 4 1/2 months ago, were talking about AMAT dropping to the mid teens based on a comparison with the 1996 EPS. We were far weaker, EPS, wise this cycle but still held the $22 (absolute) floor which we hit in 1996.
AMAT investors should make a mental TA note of the absolute $22 base which we reached in 1996 and this cycle for future references of possible bottoms and AMAT purchases in the future.
Those of us on this site who own AMAT can just sit back and count our paper gains until we convert them to cash in the future. My suggestion when you believe you have a double, triple, etc. cash out, do not worry about the tax consequence like I did last time. I did not want to pay the 40% capital gain tax but held to get into the 20% bracket and road AMAT back down to $22 even though my cost was $13.75. Now, we only have to hold a stock 12 months to be in the 20% tax bracket.
Naturally, the above is only my opinions and the data which I have reviewed from the Dorsey Wright site. Readers are reminded the old saving, "caveat emptor (buyer/reader beware)."
I will be posting the DW Bull Percentages later today.
Paul |
