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Biotech / Medical : VVUS: VIVUS INC. (NASDAQ)
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To: MythMan who wrote (17511)1/6/1999 1:55:00 PM
From: VLAD  Read Replies (1) of 23519
 
MM,

It's no fun being a part of the "out of favor" syndrome.

Once we get a chance to see what Vivus' Q4 expenses were we should have a good idea as to what its gonna take in terms of international sales/domestic sales to get this company to start showing some serious profits.

We already know that domestic income will be about the same as Q3 and international income will be lower. We also know that all expenses across the board are going to be lower. After we see the earnings report we should have a good idea as to what the future earnings picture should look like.

We know that the company will have some good positive cash flow in Q1 (thanks to $8M in milestone payments) regardless if they secure a domestic partner. We also know that as Astra starts to launch MUSE in the various European countries(not to mention other new countries such as Australia), we should see a nice increase in income from international sales.

We still don't have the foggiest idea as to what the international income will look like a year from now when many new countries are fully launched.

If Leland ever manages to sign up the partner and if weekly IMS scripts show at least a 100% increase from its 4,000 or so average total, then I see no reason why Vivus wont be able to fill that technical gap to 20.

I feel that the Street is telling us that they won't believe it until they see it.

Until Leland can produce solid tangible results, I expect we will continue to linger in this 2.5 to 3.5 trading pattern.

Only 15 trading days left until the 28th.
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