<Sure glad I stepped away from the table on that short and put business.>
<There is greater risk being out of the market than being in over the long haul.>
I think shorting is very risky and I have decided to focus on just finding long positions. Someone else can make a killing timing the crash, I'll try to make mine long on the way up and long on the bounce.
We were very wrong on this thread, but we were very right to be concerned. Nevertheless we should have bought on the double bottom bounce when all the indicators were screaming oversold. I think fundamentals can really lead you astray, and that's exactly what happened to us.
What fundamentals do tell you is how much risk there is if things turn downward. So with today's valuations, there's a lot of downside, so it isn't necessarily true that the risks of being out of the market outweigh the risks of being in. When this thing tops out, it could take years to get back to the same level, and if you adjust for inflation, it may take a decade or two. Who knows? Yeah, if you bought in '94 or earlier, than you might as well stay invested forever, but if you've been putting money in over the last couple of years, you had better have a point at which you go to cash. I think a great long-term approach is to save your money and buy mutual funds only during bear markets. No need to sell in that case.
Most people pour the most money into markets like this, learning over and over again to hold through corrections and add on dips, but what happens when the bear bites?
OO7 |
