Hello...Immi,
I agree that the fundementals have not changed one iota. Indeed, I believe they are better than ever. Sometimes, it is hard for analysts and investors to see the forrest through the trees apparently. The big picture is this: Bandwidth is a scarce resource and in very high demand. Until that changes, or CSCC's products become inferior, there is little chance (IMO) of this stock not beating the h*ll out of most alternative investments.(6-18 months out and especially from here) As you alluded to, CSCC has very talented people that most certainly realize the stakes.
If one were inclined to search the net hard, they would likely discover the AT&T deal is rumored to be as much as $50 million and that US West has already deployed about 420 or so, 9000s. If by year end, they buy the IP Navigator S/W at $15,000 we get $6.3 million. I believe they will add 200 or more 9000s this year and at a conservative selling price of $100,000K/per we get an additional $20 million more. Thus, IMO it is not unreasonable to assume the company can do $50-70 million between these two customers alone in 97. (obviously this is not a good way to model but it illustrates the potential very conservatively)
It is a big world out there with lots of opportunities for companies like CSCC. They have proven they can execute thier strategey better than their competitors in my mind. A CBX running IP Navigator can process 5 million packets per second reportedly. That makes it twice as fast as ASND's GRF. Further, it can handle 100,000 more routes.
I have a good understanding of how carriers operate. Their networks are some of the biggest, most complex in the world. CSCC has, IMO a good chance of embedding their FR/ATM switches smack dab in the middle of a high percentage of them. If the AX/SA products are even half as good as claimed, they are going to extend their reach big time. ASND and CSCO in particular, are two great companies that will offer plenty of spirited competition. At this point, CSCC's niches are not zero sum games. But if they were, I would still put my money on CSCC.
Good luck,
Daniel |
