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Technology Stocks : US Robotics -- Good time to short?

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To: SICHIN SIM who wrote (129)1/25/1997 7:38:00 AM
From: Paul Motter   of 142
 
This is from an article in BoardWatch Magazine. It is about 56k modems and makes a case for USRX in it, but I personally picked up on some very important points for Ascend in the article as well. I think part of the misconception we have here is that major ISPs will go with either X2 or Rock, chances are they will have to do both until a standard is created, and then everyone will redesign to be compatible with it.

boardwatch.com

Company Religious Affiliation (NOTE: K56plus=Rockwell, Flex2=Lucent, they are interoperable)

Ascend Communications K56Plus
Bay Networks Flex2
Cascade K56Plus
CiscoSystems K56Plus
Hayes Microcomputer Products Flex2
Livingston Technologies Flex2
Microcom K56Plus
Mutitech Flex2
Netrix K56Plus
Shiva K56Plus
U.S. Robotics x2

The point is, USRX is proposing bring a basically proprietary product to market that will be non-compliant with the American standard Rockwell has applied for ( USRX petitioned the ITU, an international body that won't finalize a standard for 18 months). A lot of arguments have been made for first to market, but first to standardize has merits, too, or so quite a few of the above manufacturers must believe.

Another USRX argument: they use DSPs so are upgradable with software: from the same article...

<<<As to standards, it matters much less than it would at first appear. The real battle led by U.S. Robotics and a few others, and I would say now officially won, is the DSP/FlashROM architecture. I would not look for ANY new product from ANY vendor to NOT use this architecture for whatever they come out with. It absolutely IS the new model for Rockwell's K56Plus, as well as Lucent's V.Flex2. It would pay to ask, but I don't think you'll find any new products that have 56 kbps that don't use this FlashROM upgrade capability. >>>

The author's point is that Lucent has created Flex2 as their 56k modem standard, and they have pledged interoperability to the Rockwell design. The flex2 *IS* based on a DSP/FlashRom.

Finally... COST per PORT:

Ascend Communications MAX4004 $572.92
Ascend Communications MAX TN $647.39
U.S. Robotics Total Control Network Hub $919.29
U.S. Robotics NETServer $872.19

MF Networx@aol.com
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