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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 659.00

+1.0%

Nov 21 4:00 PM EST

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To: Kris who wrote (3357)	1/7/1999 12:31:00 AM
From: Smooth Drive	Read Replies (1) of 99985

STILL LOOKING THROUGH MY ROSE TINTED GLASSES WOW! The DOW INDUSTRIALS closed up 233.78 points to 9544.77 or 2.51%. Broke through my point and figure chart resistance like Jordan going around Alton Lister. TRANSPORTS closed up 125.08 at 3317.46 or 3.92%. It's also up 251.07 points or 8.19% from one week-ago. The UTILITIES closed up 2.04 points at 311.79 for a mild .66% increase but that was a good move because it closed down yesterday. The NYSE COMPOSITE is kicking out to new highs too and was up 11.10 points to 611.01 for a 1.85% increase. The S&P 500 closed up 27.56 points to 1272.34 or 2.21 %. The NAZ was up 139.09 points to 2320.86 or 6.38% (that's not a typo!) Here's something I seldom see. Every referenced index closed within 10% of its high low range as a deduction from the high. They have an 85% chance of a higher high tomorrow. OVERBOUGHT/OVERSOLD (OB/OS) This is a daily calculated OB/OS indicator spliced together with masking tape with my understanding of how Birinyi calculates his. It uses a 50 DEMA and looks back one year at the highest and lowest, as a percent, that a stock or index has traded above or below its 50 DEMA. Thus, creating a so called range of OB/OS. (Also listed are a few moving averages.) 50 OVER OVER INDEX CLOSE BOTTOM DEMA TOP SOLD BOUGHT DJIA 9544.97 7630.93 8946.03 9821.55 0.00% 68.41% DJTA 9544.97 2375.65 2998.42 3317.72 0.00% 99.92% DJUA 311.79 289.08 307.73 340.10 0.00% 12.55% NYSE 611.01 486.88 569.04 613.18 0.00% 95.08% S&P 1272.34 1004.02 1168.15 1272.61 0.00% 99.74% NAZ 2320.86 1534.15 1931.68 2320.95 0.00% 99.98% 52 52 WEEK WEEK 5 13 40 50 INDEX LOW HIGH CLOSE DEMA DEMA DEMA DEMA DJIA 7379.70 9562.22 9544.97 9338.99 9209.99 9006.03 8946.03 DJTA 2260.24 3735.38 3317.46 3193.94 3113.21 3017.00 2998.42 DJUA 259.51 323.65 311.79 311.49 311.24 308.75 307.73 NYSE 462.69 611.05 611.01 600.40 590.97 573.58 569.04 S&P 912.83 1272.50 1272.34 1246.23 1225.19 1180.38 1168.15 NAZ 1343.87 2320.95 2320.86 2179.12 2092.33 1961.83 1931.68 (For a comparison as of 1/4/98 see siliconinvestor.com My, my, that is some big time Birinyi overbought. The NYSE Bullish Percent Index has moved up to 56% -- from 52.3% last week. The 10 Week MA's for the NYSE, OPTs and ASE Bullish % have all moved back into Bull Confirmed status. The Sentiment Index, as reported by CHARTCRAFT/INVESTORS INTELLIGENCE is a worry (way tooooo many bulls) SENTIMENT INDEX 01/08/99 12/31/98 % of Advisors Bullish 58.3 57.1 % of Advisors Bearish 30.0 30.3 % of Advisors Correction 11.7 12.6 Bulls 10 Week MA 63.4 62.2 Let's look at the DJIA point and figure chart with a 50 box size. I keep this chart based on the day's close, the high low, and on the hourly close. This chart is based on the daily high low. 9600 + < Bullish Resistance Line 9550 + X 9500 + X < Huge Spread Double Top Buy 9450 X + X 9400 X O X + X < Double Top Buy Signal 1/6/99 9350 X O X O + X X 9300 X O X O + X O X 9250 X O X O + X O X 9200 X O O + X O X < Quad Top Buy Signal 12/23/98 9150 X O X X X X O 9100 X O X O X O X O X 9050 X O X O X O X O X 9000 X O X O X O X O X 8950 X O O X O X O 8900 O X O X 8850 O O X 8800 O X 8750 O X 8700 O 8650 8600 There is no previous horizontal resistance at this level. The next Bullish Resistance Line is at 9600. The Bullish price objective is 10050. My leading indictor for this index is the DJUA and the DJIA Bullish Percent charts - and I don't see much weakness as of today. BTW, the NYSE Bullish % turned up on 9/15/98, and I started getting back in at that time. On that date the DOW was 8024.39. Up 18.95% to date. It's been reeeeeal good to me. Double BTW Peggy -- thank you. Take care, Eric

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