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Non-Tech : Tulipomania Blowoff Contest: Why and When will it end?
YHOO 52.580.0%Jun 26 5:00 PM EST
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To: Sir Auric Goldfinger who wrote ()1/7/1999 7:42:00 AM
From: Arik T.G.  Read Replies (1) of 3543
 
#2 (Does comparing AMZN to IOM count as a reason?)
Comparing AMZN chart with IOM in the explosive '95-'96 time frame (log scale), I draw the following parallels:

1. AMZN IPO 5/97 to 9/97 period compares to IOM 2-7/95
2. AMZN 10/97 to 2/98 consolidation period compares to IOM 7-10/95
3. AMZN 2/98 - 9/98 surge and correction parallels the same wave in IOM 10/95- 1/96.
4. From September 98 lows starts the blow off stage in AMZN, compared to the 1/96- 5/96 blow off in IOM.
4.1. Initial jump and correction almost all the way back 9-10/98 = 1-2/96
4.2. A more orderly rise and a long pause 10-11/98 = 2/96
4.3. A jump to new highs and another pause 11/16-12/4/98 = 3-4/96
4.4. IOM started the last run on 4/18/96 and topped 5/22. The biggest volume was on 4/24 on a down day, but from two days before the top till four days after, volume remained very high. AMZN started it's recent leg on 12/8/98 and the biggest volume was on an up day on 12/16. From the largest volume day to the top IOM and AMZN look like identical twins, and that brings me to conclude that:

A- AMZN will top today or tomorrow. (today's close or tomorrow's high)
B- It will be hit hard for three consecutive days after the top.
C- It'll jump half way back and trade in that range for a week or two
D- It will start a down trend with the biggest single day decline being the day after it breaks below the range.

Move all predictions one day forward if AMZN not up big today, two days forward if down today.

ATG
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