<Good grief! Long on the bounce? If that isn't a crap shoot, what is? When is the bounce over? Today? Last week? Next week?>
When I said that >>Someone else can make a killing timing the crash, I'll try to make mine long on the way up and long on the bounce<<, I meant that so long as the market looks bullish I will ride it up long, and if it crashes I will go long again on the bounce. I wasn't referring to the last drop and recovery. We haven't had the real crash yet.
So I am long now and will stay that way until the market looks shaky again. At that time, I'll go to cash if it looks like it may crash. If I'm wrong and it doesn't drop, then I'll be quicker to get back in next time. If and when it does crash, I'll play the bounce by going long in gold and maybe some techs.
BTW, timing the bounce is much easier than timing the crash, so I'll play the bounce. I'll let someone else try to short any crashes; I'll just be extremely pleased if I'm back in cash for that sort of thing, and with these valuations, I don't mind getting out and getting back in a little higher if I have to - that's just an insurance premium. But, I won't miss the big opportunities again like we did in October.
Be careful of committing to hold long-term. This is one of those extremely rare times when that can be disastrous. Look at the valuations - you should be long now, but you need to have an exit strategy.
OO7 |
