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Non-Tech : New Holland and the Ag Equipment Group
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To: Shane M who wrote (43)1/7/1999 12:37:00 PM
From: Bob Rudd  Read Replies (1) of 113
 
Buying to early: Been there, done that..I got cut in half on Best Buy & Cendant before rebound gave me 3x+ & 2x respectively. It's the price of poker when buying out of favor stuff. But often if you wait for the turn to be visible..you've missed it.
Staying undervalued for years: The combination of events that lead to the sell-off: Asia => decreased demand, Favorable weather => excess supply, =>> lower farm prices and lower demand for equipment combined with value approach to investing being out of favor with investors are all reversable within 1 - 2 year time frame. I see only cyclical sags with no serious structural change underlying this sell-off.
Recently a lot of contrarian folks have been jumping on oil stocks looking for a rebound...these out of favor value plays are on a lot wannabuy lists..when any sign of resurgence occurs the stocks are gonna jump. Example: I say an article in the NY times on how hog prices were at historical lows. Curious, I pulled up long term charts going back to 74..sure enough we recently hit lows below that. I then looked at the Feb contract...it's jumped 35% in less than a month. Traders waited for evidence of a bottom..then piled in. I don't think we'll have to wait years and years for a turn.
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