Darrell, a lot of longs on Yahoo feel like Thomas had a minimally-acceptable" deal IN HAND on 10/8...and set up the 90-120day "window" and hired DM/ML solely to try to improve the "deal in hand" and/or to get complete input from all interested parties.
Thus, Francis' recent quote plays into that theory well. , Each and every press release by ABTX makes it a point to state "negotiations are on track", or words to that effect. Either management is the world's consummate bluffer, or they risk legal implications we don't even want to consider by stating this sentence...time and time again. Given their almost perfect track record of coming through on promises...this is as close to a no-brainer as I see in the market place. What the shorts controlling 6MM+ in short interest see on the "downside" that I don't ? Still scratching my chin on that one.
BTW and FWIW - it sure seems last few days Bloomberg has "wised up" and is "hands off" ABTX. Wonder who made a few phone calls to Bloomberg management, or did Evan's bosses or Bloomberg's staff attorney(s) finally lay out his past articles, side by side...and see the antagonistic tone, poor documentation, mis-quotes..and realize their liability was simply too much ? Who knows (well, we think we know who knows, but he ain't sayin') ?
So...we're in the final days/weeks of these negotiations...and that's what I am focusing on and believing in. IMHO, a "minimally-acceptable" deal which meets the objectives of 1) raising enough to cash to pay off all debt and erase all financial worries, 2) partnering with a strategically GOOD FIT MACC, 3) w/ said cash, continuing to acquire more seed companies to further secure their future, etc...would require a 25% equity partner buy-in @ $25 or better.
I sincerely and firmly feel like this type of deal was in Thomas' hands on 10/8...so from there they have spent these past 3 months working to improve the deal. If/once a 2nd, or more, bidder comes into the picture...we've got an auction. Maybe the high bid win. I am convinced we've had two or more active bidders now as well, partly explainable by the hiring of DM to bring in international saavy. Worst case - if the "minimally-acceptable" deal is the best that can be announced, where does that take this stock to a shareholder ? $18-$20 for immediate term...$5-$7 UNDER equity buy-in price.
Not my original thought here...just a combination of what I've read and accumulated opinion.
c-man |
