MKC, When the mania ends, a great many of these cos. will either disappear or their stocks will go to single digits and never recover. When the recovery comes, most of what you will want to buy will be new technologies, not the dead crap from the previous bubble.
I know if you bought the US market in the late 1960s, assuming you changed stocks and did not get totally wiped out by 70% of the tech stocks disappearing, and kept investing about $1000 a month, you were nominally way ahead by 1982, when the buy and hold crowd got even nominally. However, in buying power, you probably got even on a spending power basis with an extremely diversified, high quality fund dollar cost averaged, in early 1987. That was an inflationary crash.
If you did the same in the late 1920s, you were in good shape in about 1947, getting your money back. So, it looks like you break even after a little less than 20 years in either an inflationary crash or a deflationary crash. Of course, if you did not buy the indices or a quality fund, and played the flavor of the month, it is difficult to say how long it would take to get even if you ever get even.
MB |
