[IBD and market perception:]
<<<The good news is Amati got mentioned in IBD, the bad news is it's not treated as a leader as most posters on this thread have thought. Just my opinion and healthy debate is always welcome.>>>
Engineer --
I agree but why not take advantage of the misperception? How often do you get to know more than the public? Sure there may be a fews days or weeks when the uninformed believe Aware is ahead of Amati, but that just gives us a little longer to load up before the others catch on.
If anyone thinks for a moment Amati isn't making deals, they're terribly uninformed. What we're witnessing is yet another example of "Align and Conquor." Now if Ascend was willing to sign with Aware what does that tell you? And if USRX is using TI's DSPs what does that tell you? And if TI sells its defense department to focus on datacommunications and telecommunications development what does that tell you? And if Lucent sells off its CAP division what does that tell you? And if MSFT and GTE trial Amati's modems in the bigger of their two trials what does that tell you? And if MCI uses Amati's modems in their Iowa trial and mentions them as the only near-flawless DSL system they've seen what does that tell you?
Hey, I'm just getting warmed up. But to the tired and weary, I'm saying wake up and put the pieces together.
And, I haven't even started on the technology itself. Want to talk about chip development? Go back and read Cioffi's article. He says:
"The designers of ADSL originally anticipated that data transfers in the growing use of the Internet would be asymmetric. Typical down:up data-rate ratios of information packets in TCP/IP protocols are 10:1 or less. The down:up ratio of the worldwide ADSL standard is i:1, thus meeting the needs for Internet service. The maximum downstream data rate is currently about 8Mbits/s; the maximum upstream is about 1Mbits/s. ***A minor revision to the ADSL standard appears likely to extend the upstream speed to 2Mbits/s, with relatively minor performance/cost penalties.
"Such asymmetry is nicely and intentionally matched to the Internet data transfer. The Asymmetry also nearly doubles the distance the datarates can travel on a phone line compared with symmetric transmission, in which both directions would carry the same data rate."
Do you realize what this means? Compare ADSL's rates with HDSL or SDSL and you'll begin to understand the importance. The upstream rates as listed in the xDSL Forum are:
HDSL6 --- High data rate Digital Subscriber LIne
.544 Mbps4
2.048 Mbps5
SDSL --- Single line Digital Subscriber Line
1.544 Mpbs
2.048 Mbps
So who might be worried if the Standard is modified????
Okay, maybe Pairgain. Well, I have a friend who knows Zimmerman and I had him ask a few questions. :)) His response is exactly as you'd expect, that there's little chance the standards committee will change the specs. Perhaps they won't, but it's nice to know we have the upstream covered if we need it. Nice to know Pairgain is willing to fight for the standard NOT being changed. You don't fight something if it's no threat.
In the process of discussing this with a telco engineer who owns Amati stock and understands the technology, I was told, "Mr. Zimmerman has a lot to lose. . . and may even oppose the adjustment to protect his market. Let's say Cioffi can cover 50% of the copper plant at 2Mbps, that's still not a bad solution. Pairgain can have the other 50% that may need more than 640 on the upstream (a smaller no. IMHO). Pairgain stands to lose alot when Amati's VDSL hits this year. . . many telcos will replace/upgrade pairgain boxes with the VDSL box. It will take time but their market will slowly shrink."
Where was I going with all this???
Oh, our chip development. Don't underestimate Amati, okay? They have the best ADSL/VDSL/DMT engineers in the world. They have the best partners in the world and are negotiating with more all the time.
Align and conquor, you bet, and when you've got the goods, don't be misled when the competition appears to be leading. Appearances are often deceiving.
The business rags were full of good articles today. Next, my take on the Barron's Roundtable telecommunications comments.
Cheers!
Pat
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