Linda: In as much as you lost like about 3.5 a share keep this in
mind ( but make up your own mind )...AOL is a bouncy stock,
look at the mar97 35 calls..they are 4.5 right now..
I wouldn't buy them yet..but if AOL does drop more they will get
cheaper, if by chance those calls get down to 2-1/4 I will likely
be tempted and hope for the dead cat bounce, wait for at least one
up day on volume, then you might try it..I hate to advise you on
this one that far out..I watch her every day..so far she has a
fair down trend in place..and I beg to differ with Soloman Bro..
and T.R. Price..as to AOLs future..long term I can't see them
holding on to the market share they have..let alone growing
any more..( except by hype and giving it away ) and that don't spell success also they are failing to turn a profit with what they
now have, not just failing they are digging a hole, cash flow is
running backwards..( growing is when you build infrastructure ) not
when you throw money away getting clients who won't pay, also
( did you hear about what happened in Russia )
AOL also looks to be thin on cash..in fact I think they
will have to borrow cash to make the "repairs" they need to
make just to keep the system up.."up grade"..up grade what..AOL is
a sort of old BBS system that became a hybrid as it entered the
net..patching it up is more a correct term..than upgrade..
modem wise with flat rates they will have to go to at least
800,000 modems to give the kind of service that the avg ISP
now gives..their plans only call for 400,000..( about half of
what they need ) and that's still a ways off, like in 3 mo
they might be up to giving half the service they need to give
buts that's even questionable..the rub is this..if you don't have
say 1 modem for ever 10 to ( 15 users at max ) then the busy
signals start..once they start the problem grows very fast..as
when people get on they don't want to log off for fear they wont
get back on..so they stay on much longer and use a ping program
to tell the server they are not idle..and you can't blame them,
I'v done it on ISPs myself and they can gripe and I tell them hook up more modems..a busy signal more than one out of 4 tries
starts compounding the problem very much, I saw one local provider
go under in less than a year, by the time he upgraded..he lost so
many clients that he couldn't pay the rent..or the payments on
his loan..I saw it coming and did not resign with him when my
contract ran out, Steves last remark yesterday about not given any refunds is subject to bury AOL..that's one time he should have lied
and forgot to..<VBG> telling the truth there was very bad
diplomacy..gezz he could have at least said they were considering
it or the best way to do it..but to say no way hosea..look out !
most users are paying via a credit card..and is he in for a surprise,
cause I know VISA, will take something off my bill if I kick
hard enough..then he can sue me..and me him..but not really as
I never used AOL except to look at it on someone elses computer,
just as I was installing some new program to put them on a local ISP.
AOL will be the Kmart of the internet in the future..who will be
the Wall-Mart..I don't know yet..but addicts like me will still
be buying time with the little small ISP..the guy I can go down
to and talk face to face with..and look at his server with my own
eyes and count his modems..<VBG>
IN fact I'm so hooked that I want my own T1 line..for just my personal use..wish I could afford it..and who knows in a year or so I may
figure out how to do that even if I have to become an ISP myself
to pay for it..I know to build the server..and won't have to buy
something from cisco..or asnd..but the nut on that T1 line is
the rub..not long ago I could have bought a whole system with 14
modems..from that dude that went bust, for a about 3 grand..it would'v
handeled 30 modems..and it's a shame he didn't plug them in before
he lost what he had worked so hard to build up..working on a shoe
string, dept overwhelmed him, and he was a likable guy too..I hated
seeing him fold..this ISP stuff is very competitive..and margins
are being squeezed..and I know that first hand.." how a gorilla
like AOL..will ever find enough to forage on in this forest to ever
turn an honest profit is beyond me," and I think a lot of other
big boys will discover the same thing..there are two that can
dig AOL's grave, AT&Ts worldnet, and ameritech they both have
very deep pockets, and can subsidize their internet plays via
other sources of income..were AOL is going to have to go to the
bankers..and you know how bankers are.."they will lend you an
umberalia as long as the sun is shining..but want it back as
soon as it starts raining "..some were in AOLs future is
chapter 11, how long they can put it off I have no idea, what
they will be like after that..might not be so bad..
You hear any brokers tooting AOL with a buy rating better ask to see how many "THEY" have sold out of their portfolio or fund..
ought to be law that if they promote any stock they have to show
their holdings of said stock, for the past 3 and continue to do so for the future 3 months..and "be liable for any losses to any stock holders if they so much as decrease their holdins by one share in that time frame"..you talk about rcomendations getting few and far between,
recomendations would get so scarce, they would be harder to find
than the Cocanuts I have growing in Alaska.
JIM
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