I think that VLNC is probably going to be OK, but it doesn't appear that they're courting a "big contract", currently. If they had the very high quality interest that we hope they have, the company would be acting differently. They wouldn't have let out the sloppy SEC filings, and the Web Site would be updated and very spiffy instead of looking like the back seat of an abandoned car. The company would be "talking" to their shareholders and not letting out that the headquarters is for sale and then not giving an optimistic outlook for a new location. Also, there would be a CFO by now, to address the financial aspects of contracts and to reassure OEMs of the company's financial outlook.
I read too much into the recent run-up and assumed that the price was telegraphing imminent success. There is also a lot of speculation in this stock because the idea of a plastic battery is very alluring. I sold on the recent free-fall and have only a small gain after investing in it since 1993. The way I would play it now is to put a day buy stop order and set it for about 25% above the close of the previous day and renew it each day. Then I'd set a stop loss about 10% under the buy price if the buy executes. This way I'd catch most of the gain if really good news comes out, and still have some downside protection with the stop loss.
We don't know the timing of the OEMs. They have to plan marketing strategies and product deployment and they already have batteries available to them. The market is near to deploying LiPoly; it's in the press more and more, and it should create a stir in the marketplace. If it's not deployed in a really novel way, the edge on the competition will be blunted. The only thing really that's really imminent about the situation is VLNC's need to execute, more than the need of OEM's to deploy this technology.
I have a very mediocre track record of buying and selling (I haven't traded) this stock and so you should not act on my musings of VLNC, but one might consider them along with all the other information that is digested. This stock loves to make a fool of me and I'm prepared to eat crow (I think it tastes like chicken). The stock closed at 8 7/16, so 1.25 X 8.4375 = 10.54. I think I'll go over to my online broker and put in a buy stop for 10.50 to be updated each day, and do the same procedure for ULBI. If and when it executes some day in the near future, it could spike down quickly if the news is ambiguous and as it has done in the past, so it bears steady attention. |
