What does a 1000 mean in your valuation model? treatment cost?
The treatment cost for BPI will be in the $4,000 to $10,000 per patient. This will be heavy duty type of cost like Epogen per year, Aids'drugs per year, Growth hormone per year. The only difference will be that the Bpi model will be per 3 to 5 days of treatment, couple of weeks at the most. This number comes out of the potential savings for ICU type of admission and the days/life/sequelae/back to job equation.
Do not believe it? Check the treatment for Synagis, just in the market from Medimmune, it is a monoclonal antibody against RSV infection in premature newborns post discharge, advantages? decrease mortality, decrease hospitalizations 55%, and decrease length of stay, and decrease Pediatric ICU use. What is the company charging?
About $1000 per vial, each baby needs one vial a month for 5 months, this is not counting office visits, neither home visits by a nurse (cheaper than office visits). This is $5,000 per treatment. This is the league Bpi will be, do not think Motrin at your local pharmacy.
By the way, Did you notice the reference about the Critical Care Medicine journal and big review of failed trials I post before. It is from Dec 98, much more recent than your reference, and Xoma is not included yet.
If your $1000 is the cost per treatment then your valuation is x5 to x10, this is $6.37 x 5 = $31.85 to $63.70 (very close to my predicted from $3.2 to $32 in 32 months). Maybe that is why it traded in the $30s when E5 was a hope, not a failure.
Caveat all good if Bpi phase III trial is a success. This is for arts and entertaining only. All diclaimers apply. Past (disastrous) performance is not a prediction of future performance. |
