I do think the action this week is from the probability that Valence may get the Palm contract. Li-Poly has been around for a long time, but not one significant contract yet in the whole industry. The markets are amazing efficient. In this case, no one knows who will get the contract for the PALM which will go into production soon, and that's the real point, an announced product with a Li-Poly battery. If Valence does not get the PALM contract when announced will its stock price drop ? I think it will, hence the run-up is at least in part based on the probability that Valence will get the contract. I will concede that you may be right that the run-up in part is due to the validation of the technology and that the whole industry benefits.
Information is more or less equally distributed to all the investors. If one really wanted to make money, one would find out by hook or crook who supplied the battery for the Palm.
We all expect Li-Poly to be big this year, but its a matter of timing.
Everyday VLNC doesn't get a (any) contract is everyday that someone else is more likely to do so and that means less return on my investment. Eventually, we will have the big winners, the bit players, and the losers. Where will Valence stand in June ?
I still feel that we won't have a contract until April 15th, and if we don't have one in hand by end of May, someone else will. In any case, the floorless will kick in July, so I plan to seriously look a selling in June if no contract has come in. Until then, I'm just holding and waiting. Its getting exciting, no ?
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