Buzzy,
Dang, I knew someone would ask that. Well, when I look at the complete decline to date from the top back in MAR 98 I see 3 distinct phases. I was also very tempted to go with this back in early DEC on those big up vol days. I didn't only because I was otherwise engaged. Now, I know my own history and I know that when I think a stock has bottomed I am often (read almost always) too early. So, with the hi vol signals of early DEC, and there being every reason for the price to collapse (tax selling, analyst downgrade, mgt turmoil) and it didn't. Well, I like that type of action. Then the stock has a few low vol up days and waddaya know, some of the deeply oversold indicators start to show an improvement (RSI, Stoch, $flow, Bop) and there is even some mild positive divergence from the SEP 98 lows to the DEC lows. I think we could still see a new low, but unless it collapses, the basic bottom looks to be forming. I'm betting the company is gonna stay in business, because this kind of a turn is usually a slow process. But, hey, maybe they have a web site and the stock will go to $300. Hope that answers the question.
Bill |
