Re: Whisper numbers
<<<Thank you for giving us some first hand insight as to how your company arrives at the "whisper number". I found that approach logical. In fact the posts of some of our fellow "threadsters" also
presented points that also had good logic to it. Unfortunately, there really, to my knowledge, is no one accepted to all "whisper number". >>>>
I hope you can forgive me for making a few comments in regard to the effect of whisper number
IMO the whisper number affects the stock price for only a few days after earnings are announced.Important for a trader, irrelevant long term.
Here is a URL I find useful at all times for looking at Dells historic performance:
htt
investor.msn.com
(If you have used the chart, ignore the following)(G)
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Some useful tips on using the chart( I'm still learning)Hehe
If you zoom in ( several times) you can obtain a chart of more and more recent data, or by zooming out obtain all the historic data
Or by 'clicking' the mouse on a particular area creates a vertical line, moving right or left while holding the mouse button down shades a grey area, after which one can zoom in and only that data covered by the gray area will be shown.
By pointing the mouse on the curves at any point the actual values
of a stock or a reference stock you have added will be shown in numerals in the upper white band. And comparative stocks can be included on the chart.
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Here is what I remember on Dell earnings for last 6 quarters:
Beat estimates by one, by one,by one, by one, by two, and by 1 cents.
Rather boring, but always very close to the whisper number.
( I did not adjust these Nos.for splits, but makes little diff,)
What happens to Dell in a few days after earnings:
May -10%
Aug -9%
Nov -9%
Mr Eckard's &&^%%* speech on Nov 11, the day before last earnings
did not help Dell at all. Whether we attribute Dells lackluster performance to the speech or to missing the whisper makes little difference, it still went down the usual(and predictable) 9% in price just after earnings.
Summary:
If you add the industry average to the MSN chart, Dell follows it like a a shadow while you walk. With todays comments of a 41% increase
in computer sales, Dell should move up.
Good luck, and Holy cow, look at them Globex futures!
Sig
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