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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 683.04

-0.1%

Dec 9 4:00 PM EST

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To: James F. Hopkins who wrote (3481)	1/8/1999 10:48:00 AM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (2) of 99985

INDEX UPDATE =============================== Most of my short-term technicals are in the overbought to CLASS 2 SELL status, but only a few CLASS 1 sells, so I feel that we are topping out but there is still some more upside, but not a whole lot. I previously mentioned the week of JAN 17 for a pullback, but could start next week (expiration week). Statistically expiration week is commonly an up week, at least flat, but in light of an overweight of calls we may see an arbitrage situation to the downside. For now I am calling next week relatively flat for the week and the greater probability of downside the following week of JAN 17, although it could start next week. If there is a pullback in JAN and it is sizable then that could be an indication of a mid-term top. If it does turn out to be a major top it would have occured during the 1/3rd point of the 9-month cycle which would imply bearishness in the future. Just making an "IF-THEN" statement since Im not predicting a BEAR market, at least not yet. Heard something interesting yesterday on CNBC - that if the US$ continues to devalue that would be a strong obstacle for the FED's to reduce rates. Im not saying to sell all long positions but that it may be a good time to at least hedge a little by maybe selling some calls on stocks. Seeya

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