MB,
Why not call him and ask him for his latest and greatest, in return for a plug on this thread? Bill Fleckenstein gave out Hickey's number and ordering information in his column a couple of months ago. In retrospect I wish I'd taken up the offer.
As you've pointed out, whether the PC market rebound is real or not is a vital issue for folks like us who are trying to read the tea leaves on the market.
Another point, tangentially related. You responded to someone on the thread a few days ago saying you'd seen bubbles like this before (oil, gold, biotech, Japan). Would you consider the possibility you're wrong on this? I'm now fairly convinced that the US equity bubble is the economic equivalent of a 100 year flood, or a 500 year flood ... an event that would only occur once every couple of centuries, like the South Sea Bubble in the English markets in 1720. IMO, oops, IMHO, we left 1929 behind about 2 years ago, at the "irrational exuberance" level, or at the latest, at 4/98 - 7/98 levels, when the political, economic, earnings and capital market fundamentals were much, much, much more optimistic than they are now. This is an order of magnitude bigger than 1929 (kind of fits neatly into Prechter's Grand Super Cycle model, doesn't it ... fwiw, and for you EWT buffs).
I think we're in uncharted territory now. What to make of it, I'm not sure, but I think it's big. This is the stuff of history, a momentous event. We're just in the middle of it, and can't grasp just how big it is.
Peter |
