Don't worry guys. The last after-hour trade was at $185 for 1200 shares at 5:02pm. Looks to me institutions are starting to get into the game. If you haven't noticed, I can tell you this pattern, AMZN has ALWAYS held onto its gain, no matter how wild the run looked like at one time. The fact is, as long as it has reached that far, people have always had confidence to buy into it using every dips, thus eclipsed the old high in less than couple days. In this case, I think AMZN will trade above $200 by Tuesday morning if general market continues to go higher next Monday. In the near future, I think we now can see beyond $200. My sight has now focused on $300 by 1/26, i.e. before Q4 earning is out. My guess is that, given AMZN's always conservative reporting style, I think AMZN will report better results than that of $250mil rev and just matching analysts' q4 EPS number. After that, we should see a series of upgrades from all analysts. Perhaps AMZN will also announce another 3-for-1 split on 1/27, thus sending AMZN to $400 again. The whole circle repeats again from that point on.
Shorts!!! Let me say one more time, cover your positions ASAP!!! Don't dream about AMZN blowing off the top. AMZN's late drop today was totally related to week-end profit taking and too much wild run early in the day. In fact I think the two drops down to $160 level in today's afternoon are extremely healthy for AMZN to continue going higher. Keep in mind that there are tons of people and institutions still waiting for dips to get in. After all, the e-commerce has just started to take off. It has years to go before we will see any sign of net biz saturation. As long as AMZN's rev keeps going up, we will see its price going higher. Don't worry about valuation, nobody cares about it. It's a totally different game. Who say's that AMZN can't catch up with MSFT's value? Who sets the rule that AMZN can't beat Wal-mart? My feeling is that with its stock continuing going higher, AMZN will start to buy tons of good I-net companies as well as some of the huge traditional stores. By then, you will see that AMZN's valuation after all will be fair!
Good luck!
MB |
