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Strategies & Market Trends : The picks

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To: Trader X who wrote (3064)1/26/1997 3:35:00 PM
From: Andrew Vance   of 6124
 
*AV*

First 4 ideas: Looking for a slight retracement on SVGI,LRCX,AMAT before going back in and FSII at <15 looks promising.

Someone mentioned INCE here for reasons other than the core antenna business. INCE looks as if it joins my "Misc group"

Misc Group - REFR, BYDS(early Spring), CIG(Spring), INCE, PAGE, PIXR -----------------------------------------------------(yeah Toy Story)
Computers - GATE, DELL
Semicondustors - ADPT, CRUS, CHPS, IDTI, CYRX
Semi Commodities - WFR, ASYT, PLAB,
Semi Equipment - UTEK, MTSN, ETEC, GSNX, CYMI, SUBM, WJ
Semi Test and Packaging - TER, SEMX
Communicatiions - NETC, OMPT (both possible takeover candidates)
Software - ALYD, BORL, NSCP

I checked out COHU, MRSI, PNCL, and PMAT but I just cannot get comforatable with either. Dark horse company is NSM. They are in the process of peddling 2 of their semiconductor facilites as soon as possible. Looking to put these funds into expanding other NSM locations. Purchase prices could be a tidy sum allowing new expansions to be very cost effective. A double good guy for them.

The above list is in order preference within the group. Groups are randomly listed since industry is very dynamic and their priorities change as will my preference for group..

GGNS, CFMT and ONTK are going to be monitored very carefully. On favorable news or retrenchment in price, I will be jumping on this train at a moments notice.

Top 6 where I BELIEVE (Pleae understand it is only I) the best 4-8 weeks performance will be is as follows: (for the ones that want to nail me down)

WFR, MTSN, ALYD, NETC, CRUS, IDTI

I will be adding at least 1 more name to this list on Feb 4th for 3 reasons. First, I took a slight loss on this stock on 12/31 and would like to get back in at the same time as the rest of you. Two, the price of the stock is slightly inflated and I expect it to drop by 10-20% over the next week or two ( I do not want any over anxiousness). If it does, then I feel comfortable that I have a good read for its market performance. Last, this week is when the company does its best to shoot itself in the foot. As the price improves, they speak out in such a manner that it underwhelms the people listing. This causes a reversal in price. They can make a miraculous discovery sound like we are in the middle of a plague epidemic.

Surprisingly enough, many of the semis/ semi equip companies listed above will be appearing at SEMInvest 97 from 1/30-2/4 (including PMAT) and I beleive there stock prices will be rejuvenated as a result. These companies have appeared on a previously published list as those that have yet to perfrom to my expectations. I cannot walk away from them now because I still strongly beleive in them.

Dorothy - cookies are getting done. First one looks as if it will be about 4" in diameter. It is the Dad, food taster cookie. If I don't die from it or go into chocolate shock (they added more chips), it means they followed the instructions correctly and they will make the rest of them at the correct size. Even family life is a gamble sometimes. As I was doing this work and typing the results, all I could here from my daughter upstairs was "Leave me alone, I can do it myself" and "Boys don't know how to do these things anyway". I gonna stick Webster on her.
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