Hi Dad - Ho Dad =g=
>>>the OEX is not so bad<<<
Carl Swenlin posted on his TAC posting on 1/6 (decision point) that the volume in OEX puts was bearish capitulation - guy is GUD!
CBOE went down to .47 something today - absolute fricking Nutz cakes euphoria, look at bcst, which also announced the July 17 top -g-
the 9 day RSI on the SPX is very overbought (78) and from the McOscillator, it looks like we have hit the breadth peak for this move and we are on the way down.
We are bumping up against the a/d downtrendline from the April top now! While we have price breakouts in the RUT & TRANS averages - still very selective.
Lots of fibonacci/elliot gurus have been calling a 96xx top for a long time. I believe we may be making a top right here, don't believe this market will have a broadening top. I am suspicious that we have seen the Dow top today and will see the S&P and Naz top early next week.
I don't believe AOL will top with an indecision pattern, should have a spike up and spike reversal and chart patterns of several nutz tell me we have more Nutzcakes next week.
The leading sector of this market is in a frenzy. All the Fund managers who have been lagging the S&P are panic buying TeCHS & Nutz to try to save their mizerable buttz from extinction as more and more money goes into index funds, creating panitkz buying parabolas.
Chris posted a trendline chart of the Naz several days ago. I have noticed that major tops in stocks sometime break these channels before reversing. This creates an ebullient bullishness - greed - panic buying that gets everybody in at the top. Just like the break of the Sept lows in October that created the fear panic selling bottom.
>>>Beats the hell out of me what the trigger for the downturn will be though.<<<
Everybody should have perked up and realized that when Hong Kong was taken over by China that this was a sea change and would forever change the way business was done in HONG KONG and look what happened to the Hang Seng only a few months afterward.
I believe the EURO will be another sea change that will catch most xenophobe American analysts by surprise. This is a competing trading block to the $USD, which has had no competition.
Just think if you were to only game in town and all of a sudden somebody opened a competing store down the road from you that was about the same size and was hungry for business - grand opening sale and all.
The Euro doesn't have the massive trade deficit that we have.
IMO, We are about to have a flip flop, paper to hard assets.
Take a look at the failed H&S pattern on the Silver Chart - it's in rocket mode. Soros (SIL) and Buffett are no dummies. Today's standout on the Dow was Alcoa - Aluminuminum. The OSX had a very bullish divergence with the price of oil. While oil was making dastardly new lows the OSX was holding the September lows.
The Gold chart has a nice looking inverted H&S pattern developing.
Gold had a very bullish divergence with the CRB, as the CRB was breaking the September lows, Gold was making a higher low.
Amazon, yahoo, aol are valued more than most Dow stocks and most countries in the world -g-
We are in a frenzy to buy something that is about nothing (Seinfeld effect --ggg--)
IMHO, that is about to change to a frenzy that is something about somethin -g-
bb |
