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QuietWon,
I agree with your assessment that 1999 will be a good one for small capitalization biotechs. There has been so much hype over biotech in the past and investors have been very disappointed. Now that a few companies have drugs with marvelous potential pending imminent approval (IMCL,CNCT) the hype is gone, stock prices are reasonable, and insiders are picking up shares (IMCL,REGN,CNCT). (Insiders at CNCT recently increased percentage ownership by about 35% to 44% of the company.) I can't think of a better time to buy, except of course three months ago.
I also agree with your assessment regarding timing of stock price appreciation. Investors usually can figure the risks and rewards pretty well based on Phase III conclusions: FDA approval chances, impact of competition, effectiveness of the drug, etc; so that is where appreciation occurs. I think the time to sell may be at the time of FDA approval when the stock pops up 10-15% in a day.
Imclone's prospects are about the best I've seen in biotech. Let me know if you have any other potential stars.
Jackson |
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