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MadBomber, if you want to be more realistic or conservative in your profit projections, I would suggest that, instead of assuming you breakeven first year, that you assume to lose 25%-50% first year, or even more. I don't see how anyone could realistically expect to breakeven first year in such a difficult profession, especially when it is commonly stated and accepted that 80%-90% of daytraders go broke or retire during their first year of daytrading. There is a lot to learn, a lot that cannot be learned easily, and an awful lot of false or misleading information (hype) floating around.
Unfortunately, papertrading is, imho, relatively worthless. It does not simulate or take into consideration that you may not or will not get timely executions, good or expected fills, that you will have problems with your ISP, with your on PC, with your software, with your broker, problems with your broker's clearinghouse, problems with your telephone line connection, problems with the market and stocks being halted unexpectedly while you're in them, various other market risks, and so forth. Papertrading has no emotional stress and tension associated with it. I can make half million dollars anyday by papertrading. Live trading with real money, real pressure, and real technical problems, is another thing altogether. Very much different.
Investing and various forms of short-term trading are not preparation for daytrading, where any little problem can and will occur unexpectedly at anytime and will cause you to lose a week's or a month's profits in just minutes if you're in the wrong position when the s*** hits the fan. Because everything is not perfect, and because things can and will go wrong, daytrading is actually a form of gambling. You're betting your skills are good enough to compensate for all the stuff that can go wrong, a very naive assumption for a new trader to make, imho.
I daytrade, obviously. But I know many traders who have quit or gone broke, and I know others who are headed in the same direction. And I don't recall any who mentioned breaking even after their first year. I do, however, hear many stories of traders who make money on a given day. I believe most traders tend not to discuss the other days when they lose it all back, plus more.
I extend to you my best wishes, however, and hope you will be conservative in your approach and ultimately realize you were actually too conservative. I recognize, of course, there may be other traders who disagree with my assessment here, and I respect their opinions too. But I noticed you asked for opinions, and I wanted to offer mine for what it's worth. I am confident this post will elicit other opinions quite contrary to mine. And that is okay.
Bill
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