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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!
LRCX 148.32-3.3%Nov 14 9:30 AM EST
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To: EACarl who wrote (7532)1/9/1999 1:33:00 AM
From: Cary Salsberg  Read Replies (1) of 10921
 
Ian, Eric, et al.

I don't post much because I don't have new ideas to present. Most of my thoughts are stated daily by others on these threads.

I have the following reasons for the sell orders I posted:

1. It is generally hard for me to take money off the table, but my portfolio was up 23.8% this week and 139% from the bottom last fall, and I am only aiming for a cash position of 20% with the stated sell orders.

2. I am holding most of my semi-equips because I believe there will eventually be a sustained up market for them. I believe the "industry leaders" are ahead of their fundamentals in a market where fundamentals have recently been mostly ignored for market favorites. The 1997 debacle has convinced me that neither industry management nor analysts are reliable prognosticators in this integrated world economy and that it is foolish not to take some profits in these highly volatile stocks when their price discounts the next year or two.

3. I overloaded on the second tier stocks last summer and fall because their prices reflected real value. I am selling some of them because I believe the prices of the leaders (AMAT, NVLS, KLAC) reflect short term top levels, and when a correction comes, the more reasonably priced second tier will fall along with the leaders and probably further on a percentage basis.
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