JP,
IMHO, I think you know the answer to your own question. If you are a true value investor then you are pretty much precluded from buying CSCO. If you can not sleep at night because of volatility then CSCO would not be for you. However, if you are intrigued about CSCO and how it continues to grow then the thread is probably not the best way to do it. You must find a way to the answer yourself.
Your post from Jan of 98 on the TXN thread shows you can get to the answer but you don't want “alot of volatile movements along the way.” In your post below
a) replace TXN with CSCO
b) replace digital signal processing with networking
c) replace , but not without alot of volatile movements with by a wide margin
Ray,
My thoughts exactly. People are too worried about short-term movements in the stock price. Who cares if TXN is sitting at $40 or $60 next week or next month? If one believes in the current corporate strategy of leading the market in digital signal processing and that this market has significant growth potential then it would be wise to buy and hold. My strategy is to hold my significant amount of TXN shares which is the majority of my 401K account for the next 5 to 10 years. In my opinion it will outperform the market, but not without alot of volatile movements along the way.
Good Luck,
Message 3306909
To be able to invest in CSCO, MSFT, DELL and many other's and I'm not even talking Inet stocks at this point it is important to take a step back, and utilize a top down approach. You are trapped in a suboptimal state space due to self-constructed boundaries. By going beyond your boundary a whole New World of opportunity emerges. A world with more risk but with concomitant greater rewards for those who can assimilate and act upon the appropriate wave. Consider your statements about CSCO, yes they are valid for you – yet that did not preclude others, some of which who post on this thread from not just buying a CSCO or Strata COM in the early 90's but holding it throughout the decade. Because they could see farther and make the right choice they have been rewarded.
Your question really should not be about CSCO's “facts and figures if possible ” this is micro. The macro question is given the next century what can help people and corporations to save money, improve their condition so forth and so on. Areas may include Health Care, Communications, E-Commerce, Broadband Signals, the Internet, increasing complexity and so forth and so on. Some would say that a case can be made that the Networking sector kind of sits astride a few of the major waves that will shape the way we live and work both now and into the future. The next step is to determine who are the players with the best chance to make it all the way? CSCO, NT, LU, COM – look among your list, maybe you buy just one, maybe you by a few. Then you hold, and unless something happens that keeps the trend from “heading roughly WEST” stay invested.
To help you sit back and see afar you might check out books of the following ilk and their newer incarnations. If you want to get a grasp of what can be check out Megatrends, consider when it was written and then skim it with the knowledge of foresight. Then consider what purchasing the right stocks in the right “waves” would mean to you some 20 years later
Megatrends by Naisbitt
Powershift by Toffler
Thinking Strategically by Dixit and Nalebuff
The Work of Nations by Reich
Against the Gods by Bernstein
As a quick primer, a gestalt piece, read the long boom article below. I would suggest printing it out, grabbing a highlighter and underlining things and scribbling thoughts in the margins. Then stop and think about the world of the future, is there a role/need for networking? Can CSCO be a player? Wait a few days and read the article again. Along the way check out the links right below a few times.
a) wired.com then at
cs.bell-labs.com
b) wired.com
a) Consider it a representation of the Internet, communications, networking, etc. etc. etc. Understand that you can consider this as a life form(s), it grows it changes and at this point in time CSCO provides a critical component that comprises 80% of this system and b) it is dynamic and continues to grow in new ways and directions, some of which no one has even thought of yet. Yes, look at numbers – and I'm sure you are good at that, but also realize that the numeric/financial tools and procedures used today may not be able to price certain things, things that are just ignored or disregarded. Those able to take the leap to see farther may be able to cross the optimality gap and achieve a better solution for they have a more powerful algorithm that accounts for the qualitative as well as the quantitative.
How much should you pay now to hopefully secure a place in the future. You see it is Back to the Future and The Future is now.
The Long Boom: A History of the Future, 1980 - 2020
wired.com
Regards and success with your journey and to other's on the thread
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