New Reuters report out today on worldwide PC shipments in 1996
showed 70.9 million units shipped, an 18% increase.
PTEC supposedly shipped product on about 25% of PCs or
about 17 million PCs. With revenues of almost $78 million in 1996,
that works out to about $4.60 per unit that PTEC shipped
product on.
Assuming that the PC shipments in 1997 grows only 15%, that would
mean about 80 million PCs will ship in 1997. PTEC has indicated
that they estimate that they'll ship on 50% or more of the PCs
shipped in 1997. That works out to about 40 million units.
If PTEC shipped the same rev. per unit shipped as they did in 1996
($4.60 per unit shipped), they'd have total revenues of $184 million
in 1997!! That's nearly double what analysts have estimated.
PTEC makes almost twice as much BIOS revenue per portable unit
as they make on desktops and their portable business is growing
dramatically recently and should continue to increase as a percent
of total unit sales (last quarter revenues in desktop and portables
were equal). Portable PC sales are growing much faster than
desktops and PTEC is taking away business from competitors.
Also, Virtual Chips revenue was only about 5 percent
of sales and is expected to grow 150% this year, adding as much
as $2 per USB core sold (there may be several USB products per
PC each one potentially using a USB core from VCI).
PTEC will also get royalties from CYBR for EVERY CYBR product shipped
by PC manufacturers (which were just beginning at the end of
1996). H&Q just put out a "strong buy" on CYBR, due to dramatically
growing sales recently. PTEC will also add value to their BIOS in
this area and will see addtional incremental revenues per unit.
Of course, none of this includes PICO products (smart phones, PDAs,
etc.) that are starting to grow dramatically. As I mentioned before, GWRX
(an OS provider for smart phones and PDAs) is going into virtually
every major deal with PICO and has a market cap LARGER than
ALL of PTEC and revenues only as large as PICO (PICO grew from
10 percent of PTEC revenues to 14% last quarter in one quarter!)
With all of this, I can't believe that the analysts are correct and
revenues per PC unit shipped will DECREASE by 50% in 1997.
30-35% revenue growth seems way too low to me. Does anyone
agree or disagree?
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