> I also think that earnings will be a pleasant surprise this time around
You may be surprised to see this Guy, coming from a super-cbs bull like me, but I'd be very cautious about that in the short term. I hope they are +ve surprise, but the way (and the force) the price of CBS tried to form the plateu around 28-31 recently, before being spanked repeatedly by analysts to "get up y'r ***, and start walking" leads to my short term suspicion about earnings outlook and their interpretation by the 'masses' (note not the 'street').
If the folks start perceiving after earnings that "afterall, its a slow growth story anyway U look at it", then the premium built into the price so far, may just drop quickly. Thats why I 'conservatively' mentioned only $58 by year-end, otherwise, with the acceleration like this week, it may just do that, as mentioned here earlier, in next six months! But its too fast too soon, and various-houses'-gas-tanks might be empty for pumping this up anymore in the short term. So, we have to lookout for some pullback in the short term (especially if CBS reverts back to the disgusting relative strength levels it had shown in the 3rd quarter of last year). Just trying to be cautious in the short term. (If they land up buying someone, it may be a gap down scenario for the price that day, as the 'masses' might perceive it as the artificially inflated price level to do an 'easier buyout'). All imho. Please do your DD. I certainly don't want all my long friends here to miss out on the run-up, if it happens, but at the same time some caution is always due.
regards to all,
-/Sonny. |
