Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)

AMZN 222.55

-4.4%

3:59 PM EST

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To: MoonBrother who wrote (33778)	1/9/1999 12:55:00 PM
From: Glenn D. Rudolph	Read Replies (2) of 164684

Now Glenn has finally waken up. Sure it's painful to finally throw in the towel. But at least he has no more new pain to suffer. But you guys will still have his pain day in and day out, as long as you still try to short AMZN. MB, Please do not confuse my non short position with a change in opinion regarding the fundamentals of AMZN. I have posted and explained why this business model will not work. Every fundamental aspect of AMZN that I have predicted has come true. The business model failed and they are trying to change it but having no success. The only way that AMZN will ever be profitable is if they will be able to charge the same as brick and mortar stores for their product and add the shipping charges to that which has been true for catalague sales for years. The only cost reduction is the paper and printing of the catalogue. Online shopping has its advantages and disadvanteges. The advantage is one need not leave the house to shop. The company will have to charge the consumer more for this convenience. There is no such thing as a free lunch. Thie disadvantage will be the higher cost and the wait to receive the product. Many people do not like the wait and many people are price sensitive so retail e-commerce will only become a small portion of retail sales. The present boom which will continue for a few years, is the novelty. None of this has any correlation with the stock price. You may notice that there are no online e-commerce sites turning a profit, for the reason I mentioned above. The online shopping currently is not charging enough to cover fulfillment. There are exceptions at this point such as Office Depot. You will notice that their prices online are identical with their brick and mortar stores. One pays more in the end ordering online due to shipping but it surely is more convenient. The only firms that will be profitable online will be the firms that finely wise up to the fact that their convenience needs to be paid for via higher prices. I have been saying this for a year. In the end, there will be a shake out of firms online. The ones that survive will be the ones that learn to sell their products at a profit. AMZN's business model is still on tarket for finanicial ruin. It can be saved only by dilution again in the equity markets. It has become clear to me that the equity markets are falling all over themsleves to pay for AMZN's losses. I doubt I can be more clear on this issue. I know people will feel my belief is incorrect. However, it will take time to know for sure and I am willing to admit my fundamental error if wrong. I have that bet with William. I respect all opinions here. I do not claim to be smarter than the street and no longer wish to be financially run over by a moving train. I still have a boxed position that I may or may not flatten. I find this volatility addictive and I have a desire to gain back part of my losses. I can go long just by covering my short shares and vice versa. It is important to me to get back to my life where I am not obsessed with watching the tape. I have other interests in life and other responsibilities. I plan to remain boxed for now until I can tell how this will play out. That could be years:-) However, if I seen momentum and and believe it will continue, I will play that momentum. That is long or short. I am always open to momentum suggestions or those that believe differently than me in the fundamentals. I just wish to be on the side that makes some money. Momentum investing is not my area of strength so I am now focusing on other firms. Thank you for listening to my long winded post;-) Glenn

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