In my opinion, there is no reason for WS to look at TSIG at this time. Serious money managers would have to be microcap managers and they would have to overcome their stated fund objectives and screening techniques in order to invest in TSIG. Every decent money management firm that I know, will screen out companies that show negative net worth and negative earnings. Most won't accept a company into their portfolio until they have cumulative quarters of growth or earnings or both. But I think you know this already.
TSIG is a high risk venture. I like the risk...I enjoy the dialog on the thread and being able to dream about hitting a winner.
Here are some possible blowups that could occur...
the company screws up big time on implementing the BR card distribution. If the teams don't grab onto the idea on a local level and a team level, the participation could be dismal. As a little league coach and manager, I know that if a local board does'nt want to push the concept... they may go back to their old fundraising methods and sell candy or pancakes or tee-shirts. They do what they think is easiest and if they don't like CDs or internet..they bag out. The company could do extremely well or they could completely bomb...depending on local level involvement and on how much effort TSIG makes in connecting to parents.
second, even if BR goes well, the market knows that this type of deal could be taken away be a more able competitor by next year. If it goes well, BR should have no reason to change, however, money talks, and our competition has more money to throw at acquiring customers. If we don't have multiple deals in place, the market will discount our company because we are a one or two customer company. They won't do that with Amazon or CDNow because they have multiple customers.
third, we don't have true credibility in our management team yet. We have some quality managers that have come on board recently but few have had the opportunity to prove themselves under fire with this concept and this company. Read the bios under the company website and you gain a certain level of comfort that they are not novices...but you don't see that they have taken companies successfully from pennies to multiple dollars. If I'm wrong here, I would welcome others due diligence.
fourth, we have strategic alliances with NMF and Dick Clark(?) but a strategic alliance without specific contracts that give the company something of immediate value...probably won't benefit the share price. If we can say in six months that the alliance brought us a deal or two, then the market may value the alliance.
fifth, Phil Esposito is a well known name in some circles, but even here, the proof will be in the contracts he brings to the table and the doors he is able to open to commercial businesses and major sports venues.
sixth, if the CCI deal falls through as a result of an unacceptable audit or ?...then the $15-25 million of publishable gross sales from their 1998 year will not be available to PR and we are back to having a company with no sales history and only promised deals on the table.
All this said Gene, I am confident that the company will be successful in enough of their deals to bring $25-150M in sales in for 1999. Even at the lowest end of the spectrum...I think the shares warrant the current value. Management is aware and working on all of the above and more...and I trust that my investment in TSIG and my patience will begin to see the share price rise.
For what its worth,
WJMT |
